Uncertainty analysis of a model of an energy distribution system with solar panel generation by Time-Varying Data Analysis, Monte Carlo Simulation and Fuzzy Interval Analysis
Résumé
The uncertainties in the model of an energy distribution system made of a solar panel, a storage energy system and loads (power demanded by the end-users) are investigated, treating the epistemic variables as possibilistic and the aleatory ones as probabilistic. In particular, time-varying probabilistic distributions of the solar irradiation and the power demanded by the end-users is inferred from historical data. Then a computational framework for the joint propagation of both types of uncertainty is applied through the model of the energy distribution system to compute the Expected Energy Not Supplied.
Domaines
Autre
Origine : Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s)
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