Monte Carlo and fuzzy interval propagation of hybrid uncertainties on a risk model for the design of a flood protection dike

Piero Baraldi 1 Nicola Pedroni 1 Enrico Zio 1, 2 Elisa Ferrario 1 Alberto Pasanisi 3 Mathieu Couplet 3
1 DENG - Dipartimento di Energia [Milano]
2 SSEC - Chaire Sciences des Systèmes et Défis Energétiques EDF/ECP/Supélec
3 EDF - EDF
Abstract : A risk model may contain uncertainties that may be best represented by probability distributions and others by possibility distributions. In this paper, a computational framework that jointly propagates probabilistic and possibilistic uncertainties is compared with a pure probabilistic uncertainty propagation. The comparison is carried out with reference to a risk model concerning the design of a flood protection dike.
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Piero Baraldi, Nicola Pedroni, Enrico Zio, Elisa Ferrario, Alberto Pasanisi, et al.. Monte Carlo and fuzzy interval propagation of hybrid uncertainties on a risk model for the design of a flood protection dike. ESREL 2011, Sep 2011, Troyes, France. pp.2167-2175. ⟨hal-00658077⟩

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