Incorporate Modeling Uncertainty into the Decision Making of Passive System Reliability Assessment

Abstract : Passive safety features will play crucial roles in the development of the future generation nuclear power plant technologies. However because of the insufficient experiences, researches and validations are still necessary with the aim to prove the actual performance and reliability of the passive systems. Uncertain resources, which will influence the reliability and performance of such systems, can be divided into two groups: modeling uncertainties and parametric uncertainties. Up to now, the researchers have as good as established ways to quantify the effects caused by the parameter uncertainties, e.g. the variation of physical parameters (environment temperature, fabrication error, etc.) and have already got a number of achievements. In addition to the parameter uncertainty, the modeling uncertainty, e.g. uncertain physical phenomenon, uncertainties by different modeling techniques, etc. shall also be an important contributor to the passive system performance. How to take into account the effect caused by this kind of factors, there hasn't any mature approaches. In this paper, a survey of researches about the modeling uncertainty from the open literature is presented. A framework to incorporate the modeling uncertainty into the decision making of passive system reliability assessment will be proposed based on the survey and the discussion.
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Tairan Wang, Tao Liu, Jiejuan Tong, Enrico Zio, Jun Zhao. Incorporate Modeling Uncertainty into the Decision Making of Passive System Reliability Assessment. PSAM 11 & ESREL 2012, Jun 2012, Helsinki, Finland. pp.1-7. ⟨hal-00721089⟩

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