NSGA-II-trained neural network approach to the estimation of prediction intervals of scale deposition rate in oil & gas equipment

Abstract : Scale deposition can damage equipment in the oil & gas production industry. Hence, the reliable and accurate prediction of the scale deposition rate is critical for production availability. In this study, we consider the problem of predicting the scale deposition rate, providing an indication of the associated prediction uncertainty. We tackle the problem using an empirical modeling approach, based on experimental data. Specifically, we implement a multi-objective genetic algorithm (namely, non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II)) to train a neural network (NN) (i.e. to find its parameters, that is its weights and biases) to provide the prediction intervals (PIs) of the scale deposition rate. The PIs are optimized both in terms of accuracy (coverage probability) and dimension (width). We perform k-fold cross-validation to guide the choice of the NN structure (i.e. the number of hidden neurons). We use hypervolume indicator metric to evaluate the Pareto fronts in the validation step. A case study is considered, with regards to a set of experimental observations: the NSGA-II-trained neural network is shown capable of providing PIs with both high coverage and small width.
Complete list of metadatas

https://hal-supelec.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00734441
Contributor : Yanfu Li <>
Submitted on : Tuesday, December 18, 2012 - 11:56:45 AM
Last modification on : Tuesday, May 8, 2018 - 10:22:46 AM
Long-term archiving on : Tuesday, March 19, 2013 - 2:30:09 AM

File

ak_li_vitelli_zio_droguett_jac...
Files produced by the author(s)

Identifiers

Citation

Ronay Ak, Yan-Fu Li, Valeria Vitelli, Enrico Zio. NSGA-II-trained neural network approach to the estimation of prediction intervals of scale deposition rate in oil & gas equipment. Expert Systems with Applications, Elsevier, 2013, 40 (4), pp.1205-1212. ⟨10.1016/j.eswa.2012.08.018⟩. ⟨hal-00734441⟩

Share

Metrics

Record views

705

Files downloads

640