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Uncertainty analysis of a model of an energy distribution system with solar panel generation by Time-Varying Data Analysis, Monte Carlo Simulation and Fuzzy Interval Analysis

Abstract : The uncertainties in the model of an energy distribution system made of a solar panel, a storage energy system and loads (power demanded by the end-users) are investigated, treating the epistemic variables as possibilistic and the aleatory ones as probabilistic. In particular, time-varying probabilistic distributions of the solar irradiation and the power demanded by the end-users is inferred from historical data. Then a computational framework for the joint propagation of both types of uncertainty is applied through the model of the energy distribution system to compute the Expected Energy Not Supplied.
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https://hal-supelec.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00838660
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Submitted on : Wednesday, June 26, 2013 - 11:15:07 AM
Last modification on : Wednesday, July 15, 2020 - 10:00:02 AM
Long-term archiving on: : Friday, September 27, 2013 - 4:06:05 AM

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  • HAL Id : hal-00838660, version 1

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Elisa Ferrario, Alessia Pini. Uncertainty analysis of a model of an energy distribution system with solar panel generation by Time-Varying Data Analysis, Monte Carlo Simulation and Fuzzy Interval Analysis. ESREL 2013, Sep 2013, Amsterdam, Netherlands. pp.1-8. ⟨hal-00838660⟩

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