Uncertainty analysis in fault tree models with dependent basic events - Archive ouverte HAL Accéder directement au contenu
Article Dans Une Revue Risk Analysis Année : 2013

Uncertainty analysis in fault tree models with dependent basic events

Résumé

In general, two types of dependence need to be considered when estimating the probability of the Top Event (TE) of a Fault Tree (FT): 'objective' dependence between the (random) occurrences of different Basic Events (BEs) in the FT and 'state-of-knowledge' (epistemic) dependence between estimates of the epistemically-uncertain probabilities of some BEs of the FT model. In this paper, we study the effects on the TE probability of objective and epistemic dependences. The well-known Frèchet bounds and the Distribution Envelope Determination (DEnv) method are used to model all kinds of (possibly unknown) objective and epistemic dependences, respectively. For exemplification, the analyses are carried out on a FT with six BEs. Results show that both types of dependence significantly affect the TE probability; however, the effects of epistemic dependence are likely to be overwhelmed by those of objective dependence (if present).
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
RA_00396_2011_R1_-_Final.pdf (503.82 Ko) Télécharger le fichier
Origine : Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s)
Loading...

Dates et versions

hal-00839643 , version 1 (28-06-2013)

Identifiants

  • HAL Id : hal-00839643 , version 1

Citer

Nicola Pedroni, Enrico Zio. Uncertainty analysis in fault tree models with dependent basic events. Risk Analysis, 2013, 33 (6), pp.1146-1173. ⟨hal-00839643⟩
234 Consultations
633 Téléchargements

Partager

Gmail Facebook X LinkedIn More