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Analysis of the Robustness of Critical Infrastructures Within a Multistate Systems-of-Systems Framework in the Presence of Epistemic Uncertainties

Abstract : In this paper, we look at the robustness of connected critical infrastructures under a systems-of-systems framework taking into account i) the dependencies and interdependencies among the components of a critical infrastructure and between different critical infrastructures, respectively; ii) the variability of the performance of each component by means of a multistate model; iii) the epistemic uncertainty in the transition probability between different components states by means of probability intervals. We adopt the Goal Tree Success Tree – Dynamic Master Logic Diagram for system modelling and we perform a quantitative assessment of the systems-of-systems performance by Monte Carlo simulation. We illustrate the approach by way of a simplified case study consisting of two interdependent infrastructures (electric power system and a gas network) and a supervisory control and data acquisition system connected to the gas network.
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https://hal-supelec.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01108198
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E Ferrario, N Pedroni, Enrico Zio. Analysis of the Robustness of Critical Infrastructures Within a Multistate Systems-of-Systems Framework in the Presence of Epistemic Uncertainties. ICVRAM & ISUMA 2014, Jul 2014, Liverpool, United Kingdom. pp.715 - 724, ⟨10.1061/9780784413609.073⟩. ⟨hal-01108198⟩

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