Analysis of the Robustness of Critical Infrastructures Within a Multistate Systems-of-Systems Framework in the Presence of Epistemic Uncertainties

Abstract : In this paper, we look at the robustness of connected critical infrastructures under a systems-of-systems framework taking into account i) the dependencies and interdependencies among the components of a critical infrastructure and between different critical infrastructures, respectively; ii) the variability of the performance of each component by means of a multistate model; iii) the epistemic uncertainty in the transition probability between different components states by means of probability intervals. We adopt the Goal Tree Success Tree – Dynamic Master Logic Diagram for system modelling and we perform a quantitative assessment of the systems-of-systems performance by Monte Carlo simulation. We illustrate the approach by way of a simplified case study consisting of two interdependent infrastructures (electric power system and a gas network) and a supervisory control and data acquisition system connected to the gas network.
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ICVRAM & ISUMA 2014, Jul 2014, Liverpool, United Kingdom. Proceedings of the Second International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management (ICVRAM) and the Sixth International Symposium on Uncertainty, Modeling, and Analysis (ISUMA), pp.715 - 724, 2014, 〈http://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/9780784413609.073〉. 〈10.1061/9780784413609.073〉
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E Ferrario, N Pedroni, E Zio. Analysis of the Robustness of Critical Infrastructures Within a Multistate Systems-of-Systems Framework in the Presence of Epistemic Uncertainties. ICVRAM & ISUMA 2014, Jul 2014, Liverpool, United Kingdom. Proceedings of the Second International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management (ICVRAM) and the Sixth International Symposium on Uncertainty, Modeling, and Analysis (ISUMA), pp.715 - 724, 2014, 〈http://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/9780784413609.073〉. 〈10.1061/9780784413609.073〉. 〈hal-01108198〉

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